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For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form during the early to middle part of next week. This system is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic and approach the Windward Islands by early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, medium, 60 percent.

Gulf of Mexico: An area of low pressure could form early next week over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Any development of this system would likely be slow to occur as it drifts westward in the north central or northwestern Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, low, 20 percent.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Bucci/Blake

Tropical Waves

A new tropical wave has been introduced along 16W and south of 15N based satellite imagery and Hovmoller diagram. The wave is moving W at around 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W, south of 15N and moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 06N-12N and between 30W and 37W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form during the early to middle part of next week as it approaches the Windward Islands. The disturbance has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours, and a medium chance over the next 5 days.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W, south of 15N and moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N-12N and between 45W and 57W. Enhanced rainfall is possible over the Windward Islands as the tropical wave passes through the area Sunday and Sunday night.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic coast through the coast of Senegal near 15N17W to 10N22W. The ITCZ extends from 10N22W to 07N32W, then from 07N34W to 07N47W and then from 07N51W to 06N57W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 04N-10N and between 19W and 25W and similar convection from 05N-11N and between 39W and 43W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A weak 1012 mb low pressure over the Florida panhandle and divergence aloft is producing some showers and isolated thunderstorms that reach the waters of the NE Gulf of Mexico. Another area of low to mid-level convergence is causing a few showers over the central Gulf waters. The rest of the Gulf enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail across the basin, except for moderate winds off the SE Texas and NE Tamaulipas coasts. Seas of 1-3 ft are prevail across the Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak low to mid-level trough is producing a few showers and thunderstorms over the central Gulf from 22N to 26N between 90W and 94W. The trough will shift west and weaken as it approaches northeastern Mexico Sat night into Sun. A weak trough will then develop from the MS coastal waters to the SW Florida coastal waters late Sat through Mon. Otherwise, a weak surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through the weekend and into early next week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas.

Caribbean Sea

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough enters the SW Caribbean Sea through the coast of Costa Rica to northern Colombia. Abundant tropical moisture and low-level convergence result in a large area of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region, affecting primarily the waters off Nicaragua and NW Colombia. Fairly tranquil weather conditions are prevalent in the rest of the basin. A recent scatterometer satellite pass depict fresh to locally strong trades in the south-central Caribbean Sea. Seas in this region are 5-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted in the rest of the central and eastern Caribbean, while light to moderate winds are found in the NW Caribbean. Seas are 3-5 ft in the north-central and eastern Caribbean and 1-3 ft in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E winds will prevail over the south-central Caribbean through late Sat night as the Atlantic ridge remains centered across the central Atlantic near 40N. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades will dominate. A strong tropical wave is expected to reach the Tropical N Atlantic waters early Tue, and move through the eastern Caribbean Sea Wed and Wed night. The wave will be accompanied by increasing winds and building seas.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front stretches from 31N73W to NE Florida and scattered showers to isolated thunderstorms are seen south of this boundary to 26N and W of 75W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that strong to near gale-force winds are occurring near the strongest storms. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are present N of the frontal boundary. Light to moderate S-SE winds are noted in the rest of the area W of 60W. Seas are 3-6 ft W of 60W.

A surface trough is evident along 57W, from 24N-28W. A few showers are noted from 24N-30N and between 54W and 59W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a 1036 mb high pressure system near 41N43W, permitting tranquil weather conditions. The pressure gradient between this system and lower pressures in the deep tropics and NW Africa result in fresh to locally strong winds south of a line from the Canary Islands to the Leeward Islands. Seas in the area described are 6-9 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-6 ft are present in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, a stationary front that extends from 31N73W to 29N78W and to northern Florida will dissipate Sat. Elsewhere, Atlantic high pressure will remain centered across the central Atlantic near 40N. A strong tropical wave will reach near 60W late Tue evening, and pass to the south of the area as it moves through the eastern Caribbean Sea Wed and Wed night.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado